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CFA Romania: Analysts’ confidence in economy has improved, but is far from peaks registered last year and in 2015

de Adrian N Ionescu 28.5.2017

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  • Macroeconomic confidence index

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The macroeconomic confidence index of CFA Romania increased to 60.8 points in April, considerably above the previous month (by 4 points), but still far from the value at which it capped last year before the elections, as well as the maxim levels registered in 2015, according to a report by the CFA Romania Association.

The increase was mainly due to the evolution of the indicator that measures the current macroeconomic conditions and much less to the expectations.

The current conditions indicator increased by more than eight points to 76.0 points, while the expectations indicator increased by less than two points to 53.2 points.

The pessimistic expectations regarding the exchange rate of the national currency improved, but the forecasts stagnated at 4.60 lei/euro for the time horizon of the next 12 months, even though it is forecasted a value lower by 185 pips for six months, compared to the level recorded in the previous year, down to 4.55 lei/euro.

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  • Expectations of CFA Romania for EUR/lei

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“It is worth mentioning that 73% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the national currency for the next 12 months,” CFA Romania reports says.

The forecasted inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2018/May 2017) recorded a median value of 1.65% (down by 0.15 percentage points compared to the previous interval).

“It is worth noticing the expectations regarding the increase of the interest rates for the national currency both in the short-term (3 months) and medium-term (5 years) maturities, as 89% of the survey participants anticipate this evolution,” the report mentions.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator ranges between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions about:

  • Current conditions – related to the business environment and the labour market;
  • Expectations for a one-year time horizon related to the business environment, labour market, the evolution of the personal income at the national economy level and the evolution of the personal wealth at the national economy level.

The survey is conducted in the last week of each month among the CFA Romania members and the candidates in the level II and III exams for obtaining a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) status, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute (USA).

CFA Romania is the association of the investment professionals from Romania, most of whom have the CFA® title. It is one of the 147 member companies of the CFA Institute and has over 210 members, some of whom are candidates in one of the 3 examination levels for obtaining the CFA® title.

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