The index of macroeconomic confidence has declined for the second consecutive month, down to 54.9 points in January 201, of 100 points in total.
„The decrease was mainly due to the index of current conditions,” according to the conclusions of the CFA Romania monthly survey published Friday.
This result confirms the trend of declining confidence in the economy started in the summer of 2015, according to the chart above.
CFA Romania analysts have also changed for the worse their expectations about the evolution of leu/euro exchange rate in next 12 months. The median values of the expectations for the euro exchange rate in the next 12 months reached 4.51 lei/euro, compared to 4.5 lei/euro in December 2016, while for six months remained at the level of 12 months.
Median values of CFA Romania expectations for euro/leu exchange rate
The macroeconomic confidence index designed by CFA Romania Association ranges from 0 (no confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and aggregates the responses of the Romanian analysts certified in accordance with the standards of CFA Institute (USA) to six questions about:
- Current circumstances – regarding the business environment and labour market
- Expectations for a 1-year time horizon: business environment, labour market, evolution of personal income in the economy and the evolution of personal wealth in the economy
In January 2017, the CFA Romania confidence index decreased by almost 12% compared to December. The decrease of the current conditions component was nearly 18%, to 63.6 points, while the expectations component fell by nearly 8% to 50.5 points, says the press release of CFA Romania.
Also, „the median 6-month expectations have registered a forecasted exchange rate of 4.5000 (similar value to the previous interval) and 4.5100 for 12 months (up 100 pips compared to the previous interval).”
The forecasted inflation rate for 12 months (February 2018 / February 2017) has registered a median value of 1.50% (similar to the previous interval).
CFA Romania is the association of financial analysts certified by Chartered Financial Analyst Institute (USA), one of the world most prestigious organizations in the field. CFA Romania is one of the 144 member organisations of the CFA Institute. Presently, CFA Romania has over 200 members.
CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index has been launched in May 2011 and measures the expectations of the financial analysts on the economic activity in Romania for an interval of one year.
The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and the participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exams.
