Document / PNL Government Program for next year

On Thursday, the appointed Prime Minister, Ludovic Orban, presented to colleagues from the National Office the document that he will submit to the Parliament, which… Mai mult

Ranking of discernment: Spectacular increase in August in the difference between Romania’s other EU countries’ borrowing costs

The long-term interest rate fell below zero in the Eurozone and dropped to only 0.28% on average at the EU level, half as compared to… Mai mult

Tourism balance drops to minus 36%, despite billions of public money that Government pumped into the market

Net costs for the state with holiday vouchers for public sector employees and the VAT cut for tourism will amount to RON 1,878 million in… Mai mult

Continuing quantitative easing: how justified is it? (III)

In this last article from the series devoted to the analysis of the quantitative easing performed by the European Central Bank (ECB), we will deal… Mai mult

Continuing quantitative easing: how justified is it? (II)

In this second article of the series dedicated to the analysis of the quantitative easing performed by the European Central Bank (ECB), we will focus… Mai mult


2017 budget – Detailed opinion of Fiscal Council: It deliberately and substantially deviates from tax rules; highly overoptimistic macroeconomic scenario; later corrections most likely to come along the way

de Victor Bratu 5.2.2017

The Fiscal Council released on Friday its opinion regarding the Law on the state budget, the Law on the state social insurance budget for 2017 and the Fiscal-Budgetary Strategy for 2017 -2019, warning on “a high probability for a negative revenue gap to occur in 2017, caused by the highly overoptimistic macroeconomic scenario underlying the budget forecast.

The Fiscal Council states in the document that it maintains the objections from its preliminary opinion issued on 27 January where it notified about an underestimation of the budget expenditure and an overestimation of the revenues.

Conclusions of an analysis that took eight days

The Fiscal Council’s final conclusions after analysing the draft budget are:

  • The draft budget for 2017, the same as the draft from the previous year, deliberately and substantially deviates from the fiscal rules imposed by both the national legislation and the European treaties signed by Romania
  • The Fiscal Council maintains its objections to the approach that persistently placing the budget deficit very close to the reference level of 3% of GDP is benign, considering that this is likely to cause vulnerabilities to the public finances and substantially complicate the answer in the event of adverse shocks, which keeps the fiscal policy in the trap of a procyclical behaviour.
  • Fiscal Council’s assessments indicate a high probability of a negative revenue gap in 2017, caused by the highly overoptimistic macroeconomic scenario underlying the budget forecast
  • Moreover, the Fiscal Council identifies a significant potential underestimation of some budgetary aggregates of a non-discretionary nature, therefore, sees as likely the need to adopt corrective measures in terms of revenues or expenses to avoid exceeding the threshold of 3% of GDP during the 2017 budget execution
  • The budgetary slippage registered since 2016 that is likely to continue in the coming years is caused by a mix of aggressive tax cuts, particularly in the consumption area, combined with large increases in the government expenditure, particularly the social ones. The estimations indicate that since 2016 Romania has probably by far the lowest tax revenues (including social security contributions) in the EU (along with Ireland), which will greatly complicate the budget configuration on mid-run.

The gap separating Romania from the EU28 average tax revenues is about 14 percentage point of GDP.

Council’s recommendations

In these circumstances, the Fiscal Council recommends the Government to accelerate the structural reform that has an impact on the rate of the budget revenue collection and the efficiency of public expenditure. In this regard, the Fiscal Council believes that speeding up the implementation of the program with the World Bank that Romania signed in 2013 for the modernization of the system that administrates the budget revenues should be an immediate priority.

Also, swiftly making the process of prioritizing public investments operational and a real reform of the public administration, designed to create a performance management basis for the functioning of the state at various levels could generate significant gains in efficiency at the level of budget expenditure.

About the Fiscal-Budgetary Strategy for 2017-2019

Regarding the Fiscal-Budgetary Strategy for 2017-2019, the Council notes that the attention of the authorities seems again to be exclusively focused on the last year, while not giving the same attention to the mid-term budget projections.

The current strategy indicates a quasi-stable structural deficit in 2018 (an increase from 2.91% to 2.97% of GDP), followed by a decline of only 0.3% in 2019. Even if we accept the extremely favourable assessments of the National Prognosis Commission (CNP) in terms of growth of the potential GDP (the Fiscal Council expressed its scepticism about them in the introduction of this opinion) at the end of the time horizon covered by the strategy it would remain a deviation of 1.7 pp., compared to 1% in the structural deficit compatible with the mid-term objective consistent with the budget balance consistent from the LRFB perspective.

Given the substantial differences between the paths of the potential GDP forecasted by the CNP and the European Commission, a higher deviation at the end of the forecast period from the mid-term objective appears as likely.

The Fiscal Council considers that, given the doubts expressed on the optimistic macroeconomic scenario for 2017 and mid-term, with an impact on the path of the budget revenues, plus the apparent underestimation of the budget expenditure for 2017, there is a balance of risks mostly tilted towards higher deficits than forecasted in the Fiscal-Budgetary Strategy, under the assumption of unchanged fiscal -budgetary policies.

Mergeți în homepage ›

Publicat la data de 5.2.2017

Lăsați un comentariu


Transport Ministry announces it has sent to Brussels the financing request for Sibiu - Pitesti highway

The Transport Ministry, as the Intermediate Body in Transport, approved the financing request for the project "Construction of Sibiu - Pitesti highway", Sections 1, 4… Mai mult

Romania and Juncker Plan: EUR 720 million attracted, of which 35% by Transgaz for BRUA

(The map of investment financed through Juncker Plan, by GDP share. Darker colours mean higher shares) The operator of national natural gas pipelines, Transgaz (TGN)… Mai mult

Top 3 reasons why young people leave Romania

Lack of trust in authorities, corruption and low living standards are the main reasons why young people leave Romania. The data is part of a… Mai mult

IMM Invest Romania – program implementing rules have been published

The Ministry of Public Finance announces that it has issued the methodological norms for the implementation of the Program for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises… Mai mult

Pollution import and car park expansion: comparisons with the other EU states

Romania is the EU country with the fewest cars in terms of the number of inhabitants, according to data recently published by Eurostat. We appear… Mai mult

Government is trying to save budget deficit: reductions in public administration system, cancellation of bonus for harmful conditions, excise duty on soft drinks

The Government is preparing the public for the first measures aimed at avoiding the budget slippage, which would be applied by the PSD-ALDE government. News… Mai mult

Laura Codruta Kovesi remains alone in the race for European Chief Prosecutor

French Prosecutor Jean-Francois Bohnert will be appointed as head of the European Financial Prosecutor's Office, a position for which he was heard on Thursday, 11… Mai mult

Romania - EU country with highest risk of dying in a road accident, Bulgaria is quickly decreasing number of victims since it built motorways

Romania recorded the highest road deaths in the EU also last year, with 96 deaths per one million inhabitants in 2018, almost double the EU… Mai mult

Latest developments in progress at Health Ministry: Differentiated wages based on performance, competitions organised at a regional level not by hospitals

Sorina Pintea announced on Thursday further new changes that will be brought to the functioning of the health care system, including new rules for employment… Mai mult

ANAF changes selection procedure for liquidators. Main changes

The new order on approval and selection procedures for insolvency practitioners is an important step to a very good direction, industry experts say. ANAF is… Mai mult

Romania loses competition for a seat at UN Security Council. MAE Excuse: Campaign started too late

Romania lost to Estonia in the final vote to get the non-permanent member position within the UN Security Council for the period 2020-2021. On Friday,… Mai mult

Business internationalization / eMAG makes a step to entry five new international markets and targets a business of EUR 2 billion

eMAG hopes to get the opinion of the Hungarian Competition Council over the next two months for the acquisition of Extreme Digital, the market leader… Mai mult

"At a distance from books": 85,000 teachers (one third of educational staff) are graduates of distance learning

Approximately 85,000 teachers are graduates of distance learning (ID) programs, Education Minister Ecaterina Andronescu said at a meeting with school inspectors from Caras-Severin County. The… Mai mult