SIMILAR ARTICLES

Ups! EU economy is slowing down, and that will inevitably affect us

The economy of the European Union recorded in the second quarter of 2019 the worst evolution of the last five years, with a quarterly increase… Mai mult

How we stand compared to Eurozone. Differences between economic indicators

Romania announced its intention to join the Eurozone in 2024. Adoption of the single European currency is not optional but included in the Treaty of… Mai mult

How did Estonia reach the world top in digitalization. INTERVIEW: Margus Noormaa, General Director of the Estonian Information System Authority

Estonia is well-known as a phenomenon of digitalization. On the official website of the European Commission it is mentioned to be „Estonia is probably the… Mai mult

Salaries in companies with domestic capital increase faster but remain half the level in foreign companies. Why

Salaries in domestic companies continue to grow as staff shortage widens, but remain half the level registered in foreign firms, according to an analysis by… Mai mult

BNR meeting minutes: Six comments on local economic development

Although gross fixed capital formation had a surprising positive contribution to the economic growth in the first part of the year, members of the National… Mai mult

Cronicile

Spectacular GDP growth in Q1: 5%, in the context of rhythm decline in manufacturing to just 1.2%. Dilemmas

de Marin Pana , 20.5.2019

Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2019 increased by 5% in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year (5.1% adjusted by seasonality, which will be communicated to Eurostat for comparability with other EU member states).

According to the same INS “signal” release, the advance compared to the previous quarter was 1.3% (seasonally adjusted as well).

The official gross commercial result is above expectations and better than in the four quarters of last year, although the advance of the main component that influences the advance of the gross value added, the manufacturing sector, declined to just 1.2% in Q1 2019 compared to 5.9% in Q1 2018.

Explanations on the structure of GDP formation will come in the next release, in the provisional version of recording the economic growth.

*

  • Evolution of quarterly GDP compared to the same quarter of the previous year (%, gross series)
  • Quarter

*

The rather high growth rate relative to the previous quarter, about four times higher than in the same period of Q1 2018, should correspond to a net higher economic growth at the beginning of this year compared to the beginning of last year. An advance that is found neither in the manufacturing sector nor in the moderate growth of the private sector, where the segment of self-employed professionals was in decline.

*

  • Evolution of quarterly GDP compared to the previous quarter (%, seasonally adjusted series)
  • Quarter

*

Noteworthy, the share of the first quarter in the overall result of a year is relatively low, somewhere around 20% instead of 25%, as it would have been in the case of evenly distributed results over all four quarters of the year. A simple mathematical equation shows that we shall need an even higher average growth rate, of 5.6% in the remaining three quarters, in order to achieve the level of 5.5% officially predicted by the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis.

Unfortunately, industrial production growth rate, which supports the entire economy, has been quite weak since the beginning of the year and even declining in March. It is noteworthy that, in the context of a price increasing trend in this sector, which will translate into a deflator (equivalent to the inflation in the whole economy, not just for the population), which will tend to reduce, in real terms, the economic growth recorded in current prices.

*

  • Evolution of manufacturing production and trade (% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, gross series)
  • Month Jan 2019         Feb 2018         March 2018
  • Industrial production
  • Labour productivity
  • Prices in industrial production
  • Retail
  • Market services provided to the population

*

If we correlate with the modest increase in labour productivity, the explanation for the increasing GDP growth rate seems to come rather from the evolution in the retail and services provided to the population, inflated up to values ​​far above the results in the manufacturing sector.

The result of +12.5% ​​ in the construction sector is exceptional, but given its relatively small share of GDP, it cannot explain the increasing economic advance. We shall see that in the presentation of the economic growth structure on Q1 2019 but until then we should pay attention to the vertiginous increase in the balance of payments deficit right on the goods and services segment.

Mergeți în homepage ›

Publicat la data de 20.5.2019

Lăsați un comentariu


NEWS

IMM Invest Romania – program implementing rules have been published

The Ministry of Public Finance announces that it has issued the methodological norms for the implementation of the Program for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises… Mai mult

Pollution import and car park expansion: comparisons with the other EU states

Romania is the EU country with the fewest cars in terms of the number of inhabitants, according to data recently published by Eurostat. We appear… Mai mult

Government is trying to save budget deficit: reductions in public administration system, cancellation of bonus for harmful conditions, excise duty on soft drinks

The Government is preparing the public for the first measures aimed at avoiding the budget slippage, which would be applied by the PSD-ALDE government. News… Mai mult

Laura Codruta Kovesi remains alone in the race for European Chief Prosecutor

French Prosecutor Jean-Francois Bohnert will be appointed as head of the European Financial Prosecutor's Office, a position for which he was heard on Thursday, 11… Mai mult

Romania - EU country with highest risk of dying in a road accident, Bulgaria is quickly decreasing number of victims since it built motorways

Romania recorded the highest road deaths in the EU also last year, with 96 deaths per one million inhabitants in 2018, almost double the EU… Mai mult

Latest developments in progress at Health Ministry: Differentiated wages based on performance, competitions organised at a regional level not by hospitals

Sorina Pintea announced on Thursday further new changes that will be brought to the functioning of the health care system, including new rules for employment… Mai mult

ANAF changes selection procedure for liquidators. Main changes

The new order on approval and selection procedures for insolvency practitioners is an important step to a very good direction, industry experts say. ANAF is… Mai mult

Romania loses competition for a seat at UN Security Council. MAE Excuse: Campaign started too late

Romania lost to Estonia in the final vote to get the non-permanent member position within the UN Security Council for the period 2020-2021. On Friday,… Mai mult

Business internationalization / eMAG makes a step to entry five new international markets and targets a business of EUR 2 billion

eMAG hopes to get the opinion of the Hungarian Competition Council over the next two months for the acquisition of Extreme Digital, the market leader… Mai mult

"At a distance from books": 85,000 teachers (one third of educational staff) are graduates of distance learning

Approximately 85,000 teachers are graduates of distance learning (ID) programs, Education Minister Ecaterina Andronescu said at a meeting with school inspectors from Caras-Severin County. The… Mai mult

Mugur Isarescu: We should make a film for Viasat History about treasure in Moscow

A book should be written or a movie should be made and sent to Viasat History about a treasure evacuated to Moscow, as it is… Mai mult

Rhythm of commercial vehicle registration increases 3 times faster in Romania than EU average

Today, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) announced the status of commercial vehicle registrations in EU member states + EFTA in April and cumulated after… Mai mult