SIMILAR ARTICLES

How much of public investment represent European cohesion funds: a situation at EU level with Romania in the list

One of the major struggles regarding the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework refers to the level of cohesion funds to be allocated to member countries… Mai mult

Romania’s debt costs: Yield of government bonds compared to countries in the region

The yield of long-term Romanian government bonds was 4.28% in January 2020, according to Eurostat data. That is well above all the other states of… Mai mult

Reversed trend in mutual funds: Romanians invested more money than they withdrew. They look for funds with government bonds

Net subscriptions in Romanian mutual funds (the difference between invested and withdrawn amounts) became again positive in 2019 after they had been negative in 2018.… Mai mult

Romgaz has started exploitation of richest onshore gas deposits discovered in 30 years

Romgaz (SNG) announced the start of production in the deep area of Caragele deposit (Buzau), the biggest discovered in the last 30 years and one… Mai mult

4.9% – Romania’s spectacular public deficit in Q3. 2 times more than anyone else in the EU

Romania managed again to stand out at the EU level by recording the highest level of the public deficit in the third quarter of 2019,… Mai mult

Cronicile

70% of economic growth in first three quarters of 2018, obtained by stocks increase. Foreign exchanges pulled down GDP by 1.6 percentage points

de Marin Pana , 14.1.2019

INS recalculated GDP in the third quarter and the first three quarters of the year.

Here are the growth data for the Romanian economy, updated in the provisional version 2, with the observation that the initially communicated growth rate has not changed but marginally (from 4.3% to 4.4% in gross series and from 4.1% to 4.2%, seasonally adjusted).

It is noteworthy the confirmation of the return to higher growth rates in Q2 and Q3 2018 compared to previous quarters after the slowdown recorded in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.

*

  • Evolution of quarterly GDP compared to the same quarter of previous year (% seasonally adjusted series)
  • Quarter

*

Rhythms moderated at the annual level precisely by the base effect of previous results (Q3 2017 marked a local maximum level of economic advance compared to the same quarter of the previous year, respectively 8.3%).

*

  • GDP evolution compared to the previous quarter (% seasonally adjusted series)

*

Adjustments to the quarterly GDP recalculation were relatively minor for Q1 and Q2 (and only in the seasonally adjusted series), only for Q3 they were somewhat more consistent (+RON1,828.2 million gross series and + 1,160.3 seasonally adjusted).

Against a target of RON 949.6 billion for the end of the year, the situation after the first three quarters is as follows:

*

  • Q1       Q2       Q3       Q1-Q3
  • GDP (billion RON, gross series)
  • GDP (billion RON, seasonally adjusted series)

*

About RON 286 billion have remained to be realized in Q4 to reach the forecast of RON 949.6 billion (namely about 30% of the estimated value of GDP for 2018), which seems to be feasible based on the previously recorded data (GDP shares are not equal in the four quarters and a higher value is usual at the end of the year).

Constructions, the only sector that has dragged economic growth down

After the recalculation of the data in the provisional version 2 (which will remain valid until the semi-final one, which will be announced next year), the manufacturing sector remained by far the first in terms of the contribution to GDP growth, with 1.1 percentage points (pp).

It was followed by trade and agriculture, each with 0.6 pp and far away from the IT sector and professional activities plus support services, each with 0.3 percentage points (see table).

*

  • GDP – gross series – by resource categories, in the first three quarters of 2018 and their effects
  • Sector             Realised (billion RON)            Change                       Effect on GDP
  • Volume Price
  • Manufacturing
  • Trade, transport, auto repairs, hotels, etc
  • Public administration, education, health, etc
  • Real estate
  • Professional activities, support services, etc
  • IT&C
  • Construction
  • Entertainment, home repairs, other services
  • Financial intermediations and insurance
  • Agriculture, forestry, fishery
  • Gross added value
  • Net tax on products
  • GDP

*

The construction sector recorded a volume decline (-4.6%) and had a very high price index (+ 16.9%), a mix which led to the only negative impact on the economic growth (-0.2 percentage points).

For the financial intermediation and insurance sector, the measured contribution to the GDP growth was null.

The contribution of the public sector (public administration, education, health, etc.) was only 0.2 p, the same as the real estate transactions, mainly due to the highest maximum price index recorded in the first three quarters of 2018 (+ 18.1%),.

Regarding the use of GDP, we can notice how the increase in the actual final consumption of households was the main economic growth driver on Q1-Q3, with 3.3% of the 4.2% gross change registered in total.

By contrast, final individual public administration consumption (-7.2%) and gross fixed capital formation (-1.1%) declined, with negative effects on GDP of -0.3pp and -0.4 pp.

*

  • Usage categories contribution to GDP formation and growth, first three quarters of 2018 – gross series- and effect on Q2
  • Sector             Realised (billion RON)              Change                       Effect on adjusted GDP
  • Volume            Price
  • Actual final consumption
  • – Actual final individual consumption of households
  • — Actual final consumption of households
  • — non-profit making institutions in the service of households
  • — final individual public administration consumption
  • – collective final public administration consumption
  • Gross fixed capital formation
  • Stocks variation
  • Net export of goods and services
  • Export of goods and services
  • Import of goods and services
  • GDP

*

The major influence of stocks on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2018 would deserve an in-depth explanation.

They brought 3.1pp of the adjusted growth of 4.4%. That is, they gave 70% of GDP growth, which is quite unusual to use a euphemism. And that, under the conditions of a negative net export that reduced GDP by 1.6 percentage points.

In fact, the export contribution of just 1 percentage point to the economic growth, with a 2.6% decrease in imports, explains both the decline of the real economic growth rate below the initial forecasts and the calls to curb a domestic demand that benefit to a great extent other European economies and not only.

Mergeți în homepage ›

Publicat la data de 14.1.2019

Lăsați un comentariu


NEWS

Shareholders of Galati steel plant promise investments of one billion euros

GFG Alliance has committed to invest one billion euros to upgrade Galati steel plant in order to reduce emissions and increase production. Another EUR 1… Mai mult

Transport Ministry announces it has sent to Brussels the financing request for Sibiu - Pitesti highway

The Transport Ministry, as the Intermediate Body in Transport, approved the financing request for the project "Construction of Sibiu - Pitesti highway", Sections 1, 4… Mai mult

Romania and Juncker Plan: EUR 720 million attracted, of which 35% by Transgaz for BRUA

(The map of investment financed through Juncker Plan, by GDP share. Darker colours mean higher shares) The operator of national natural gas pipelines, Transgaz (TGN)… Mai mult

Top 3 reasons why young people leave Romania

Lack of trust in authorities, corruption and low living standards are the main reasons why young people leave Romania. The data is part of a… Mai mult

IMM Invest Romania – program implementing rules have been published

The Ministry of Public Finance announces that it has issued the methodological norms for the implementation of the Program for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises… Mai mult

Pollution import and car park expansion: comparisons with the other EU states

Romania is the EU country with the fewest cars in terms of the number of inhabitants, according to data recently published by Eurostat. We appear… Mai mult

Government is trying to save budget deficit: reductions in public administration system, cancellation of bonus for harmful conditions, excise duty on soft drinks

The Government is preparing the public for the first measures aimed at avoiding the budget slippage, which would be applied by the PSD-ALDE government. News… Mai mult

Laura Codruta Kovesi remains alone in the race for European Chief Prosecutor

French Prosecutor Jean-Francois Bohnert will be appointed as head of the European Financial Prosecutor's Office, a position for which he was heard on Thursday, 11… Mai mult

Romania - EU country with highest risk of dying in a road accident, Bulgaria is quickly decreasing number of victims since it built motorways

Romania recorded the highest road deaths in the EU also last year, with 96 deaths per one million inhabitants in 2018, almost double the EU… Mai mult

Latest developments in progress at Health Ministry: Differentiated wages based on performance, competitions organised at a regional level not by hospitals

Sorina Pintea announced on Thursday further new changes that will be brought to the functioning of the health care system, including new rules for employment… Mai mult

ANAF changes selection procedure for liquidators. Main changes

The new order on approval and selection procedures for insolvency practitioners is an important step to a very good direction, industry experts say. ANAF is… Mai mult

Romania loses competition for a seat at UN Security Council. MAE Excuse: Campaign started too late

Romania lost to Estonia in the final vote to get the non-permanent member position within the UN Security Council for the period 2020-2021. On Friday,… Mai mult

Business internationalization / eMAG makes a step to entry five new international markets and targets a business of EUR 2 billion

eMAG hopes to get the opinion of the Hungarian Competition Council over the next two months for the acquisition of Extreme Digital, the market leader… Mai mult