fbpx Modifica setari cookieuri


Finance Ministry announces payment incentives for budget obligations outstanding after the state of emergency announcement

The Ministry of Public Finance (MFP) proposes to regulate a simplified alternative procedure for granting a payment rescheduling of up to 12 months, for the… Mai mult

IMF improved its forecast for Romania: 4.8% decrease in 2020 and 4.6 % increase next year

Romania’s economy will contract by 4.8% of GDP this year, according to the revised forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a slightly more optimistic… Mai mult

Romania’s recovery – in WB Report: 2021 indicators compared to starting moment of Covid crisis

The data included in the autumn report of the World Bank “COVID-19 and Human Capital” which brings the forecast for Europe and Central Asia countries… Mai mult

A new US-Romania agreement in military field – a 10-year plan to strengthen defence in Black Sea area

Defence Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper met on Thursday at the Pentagon with Romanian National Defence Minister Nicolae-Ionel Ciuca and the two signed a “defence… Mai mult

Romania’s direct investments abroad – EUR 324 million in 2019: Cyprus, the most important destination

The balance of Romania’s direct investments abroad amounted to EUR 324 million in 2019, according to data published on Wednesday by the National Bank of… Mai mult

70% of economic growth in first three quarters of 2018, obtained by stocks increase. Foreign exchanges pulled down GDP by 1.6 percentage points

de Marin Pana , 14.1.2019

INS recalculated GDP in the third quarter and the first three quarters of the year.

Here are the growth data for the Romanian economy, updated in the provisional version 2, with the observation that the initially communicated growth rate has not changed but marginally (from 4.3% to 4.4% in gross series and from 4.1% to 4.2%, seasonally adjusted).

It is noteworthy the confirmation of the return to higher growth rates in Q2 and Q3 2018 compared to previous quarters after the slowdown recorded in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.


  • Evolution of quarterly GDP compared to the same quarter of previous year (% seasonally adjusted series)
  • Quarter


Rhythms moderated at the annual level precisely by the base effect of previous results (Q3 2017 marked a local maximum level of economic advance compared to the same quarter of the previous year, respectively 8.3%).


  • GDP evolution compared to the previous quarter (% seasonally adjusted series)


Adjustments to the quarterly GDP recalculation were relatively minor for Q1 and Q2 (and only in the seasonally adjusted series), only for Q3 they were somewhat more consistent (+RON1,828.2 million gross series and + 1,160.3 seasonally adjusted).

Against a target of RON 949.6 billion for the end of the year, the situation after the first three quarters is as follows:


  • Q1       Q2       Q3       Q1-Q3
  • GDP (billion RON, gross series)
  • GDP (billion RON, seasonally adjusted series)


About RON 286 billion have remained to be realized in Q4 to reach the forecast of RON 949.6 billion (namely about 30% of the estimated value of GDP for 2018), which seems to be feasible based on the previously recorded data (GDP shares are not equal in the four quarters and a higher value is usual at the end of the year).

Constructions, the only sector that has dragged economic growth down

After the recalculation of the data in the provisional version 2 (which will remain valid until the semi-final one, which will be announced next year), the manufacturing sector remained by far the first in terms of the contribution to GDP growth, with 1.1 percentage points (pp).

It was followed by trade and agriculture, each with 0.6 pp and far away from the IT sector and professional activities plus support services, each with 0.3 percentage points (see table).


  • GDP – gross series – by resource categories, in the first three quarters of 2018 and their effects
  • Sector             Realised (billion RON)            Change                       Effect on GDP
  • Volume Price
  • Manufacturing
  • Trade, transport, auto repairs, hotels, etc
  • Public administration, education, health, etc
  • Real estate
  • Professional activities, support services, etc
  • IT&C
  • Construction
  • Entertainment, home repairs, other services
  • Financial intermediations and insurance
  • Agriculture, forestry, fishery
  • Gross added value
  • Net tax on products
  • GDP


The construction sector recorded a volume decline (-4.6%) and had a very high price index (+ 16.9%), a mix which led to the only negative impact on the economic growth (-0.2 percentage points).

For the financial intermediation and insurance sector, the measured contribution to the GDP growth was null.

The contribution of the public sector (public administration, education, health, etc.) was only 0.2 p, the same as the real estate transactions, mainly due to the highest maximum price index recorded in the first three quarters of 2018 (+ 18.1%),.

Regarding the use of GDP, we can notice how the increase in the actual final consumption of households was the main economic growth driver on Q1-Q3, with 3.3% of the 4.2% gross change registered in total.

By contrast, final individual public administration consumption (-7.2%) and gross fixed capital formation (-1.1%) declined, with negative effects on GDP of -0.3pp and -0.4 pp.


  • Usage categories contribution to GDP formation and growth, first three quarters of 2018 – gross series- and effect on Q2
  • Sector             Realised (billion RON)              Change                       Effect on adjusted GDP
  • Volume            Price
  • Actual final consumption
  • – Actual final individual consumption of households
  • — Actual final consumption of households
  • — non-profit making institutions in the service of households
  • — final individual public administration consumption
  • – collective final public administration consumption
  • Gross fixed capital formation
  • Stocks variation
  • Net export of goods and services
  • Export of goods and services
  • Import of goods and services
  • GDP


The major influence of stocks on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2018 would deserve an in-depth explanation.

They brought 3.1pp of the adjusted growth of 4.4%. That is, they gave 70% of GDP growth, which is quite unusual to use a euphemism. And that, under the conditions of a negative net export that reduced GDP by 1.6 percentage points.

In fact, the export contribution of just 1 percentage point to the economic growth, with a 2.6% decrease in imports, explains both the decline of the real economic growth rate below the initial forecasts and the calls to curb a domestic demand that benefit to a great extent other European economies and not only.

Mergeți în homepage ›

Publicat la data de 14.1.2019

Lăsați un comentariu


New Renault boss: “Dacia is a miracle. It's time for the brand to flourish"

Luca de Meo (foto), the new general manager (CEO) of Renault group, considers that Dacia project proved to be a miracle and that no one… Mai mult

Pentagon transforms Campia Turzii unit into a NATO air hub at the Black Sea

A former Soviet airbase in central Romania could become a hub for US Air Force operations in south-eastern Europe, where the Pentagon is seeking to… Mai mult

Nuclearelectrica shareholders approved to terminate negotiations with Chinese for building reactors 3 and 4 from Cernavoda

Nuclearelectrica's Board of Directors has been mandated to initiate proceedings to terminate negotiations with China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), as well as legal effects… Mai mult

Renault holds expansion of its plant in Romania, 15,000 jobs cancelled at global level

"Putting capacity growth projects planned in Morocco and Romania on hold" - is one of the measures included in the draft plan of Renault Group… Mai mult

Romania is a net importer of electricity in 2020 as well

Romania imported an amount of electricity of almost 796 GWh in the first month of this year, by more than 36% above what it exported… Mai mult

Shareholders of Galati steel plant promise investments of one billion euros

GFG Alliance has committed to invest one billion euros to upgrade Galati steel plant in order to reduce emissions and increase production. Another EUR 1… Mai mult

Transport Ministry announces it has sent to Brussels the financing request for Sibiu - Pitesti highway

The Transport Ministry, as the Intermediate Body in Transport, approved the financing request for the project "Construction of Sibiu - Pitesti highway", Sections 1, 4… Mai mult

Romania and Juncker Plan: EUR 720 million attracted, of which 35% by Transgaz for BRUA

(The map of investment financed through Juncker Plan, by GDP share. Darker colours mean higher shares) The operator of national natural gas pipelines, Transgaz (TGN)… Mai mult

Top 3 reasons why young people leave Romania

Lack of trust in authorities, corruption and low living standards are the main reasons why young people leave Romania. The data is part of a… Mai mult

IMM Invest Romania – program implementing rules have been published

The Ministry of Public Finance announces that it has issued the methodological norms for the implementation of the Program for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises… Mai mult

Pollution import and car park expansion: comparisons with the other EU states

Romania is the EU country with the fewest cars in terms of the number of inhabitants, according to data recently published by Eurostat. We appear… Mai mult

Government is trying to save budget deficit: reductions in public administration system, cancellation of bonus for harmful conditions, excise duty on soft drinks

The Government is preparing the public for the first measures aimed at avoiding the budget slippage, which would be applied by the PSD-ALDE government. News… Mai mult

Laura Codruta Kovesi remains alone in the race for European Chief Prosecutor

French Prosecutor Jean-Francois Bohnert will be appointed as head of the European Financial Prosecutor's Office, a position for which he was heard on Thursday, 11… Mai mult

Romania - EU country with highest risk of dying in a road accident, Bulgaria is quickly decreasing number of victims since it built motorways

Romania recorded the highest road deaths in the EU also last year, with 96 deaths per one million inhabitants in 2018, almost double the EU… Mai mult

Latest developments in progress at Health Ministry: Differentiated wages based on performance, competitions organised at a regional level not by hospitals

Sorina Pintea announced on Thursday further new changes that will be brought to the functioning of the health care system, including new rules for employment… Mai mult

ANAF changes selection procedure for liquidators. Main changes

The new order on approval and selection procedures for insolvency practitioners is an important step to a very good direction, industry experts say. ANAF is… Mai mult