SIMILAR ARTICLES

IMF report – Conclusions show that Romania has become a new and atypical growth model: through imbalances. Which will soon get to be paid

Romania’s macroeconomic imbalances have increased in the past year, and economic and fiscal policies have to change so that the population’s incomes and prospects of… Mai mult

Discharging imbalances on RON exchange rate could start even this year. Analysts’ scenarios and BNR’s uncertainty

Analysts’ scenarios on the evolution of the exchange rate are rather prudent for the coming months, but severe for the beginning of the next year… Mai mult

Stimulating over-indebtedness by stimulating consumption: Overdue loans trigger warning signal – Map of debtors

The policy of stimulating consumption has also distorted the degree of indebtedness in the territorial distribution, and rich counties are competing with the poor ones… Mai mult

Interview with Fogh Rasmussen: “NATO’s role is to keep Russians out, Americans in and Europeans involved”

The text below is a series of fragments from the interview that former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen gave to CRONICILE Curs de guvernare… Mai mult

Gas and electricity prices: Romania in a European context

Romania ranked fourth in the second half of last year in the EU in terms of price increase in natural gas provided to the population,… Mai mult

Cronicile

Sectors supporting the GDP growth – IT-telecom and trade at the forefront

de Dordia Tereza 10.10.2016

crestereeconomieThe (INS) confirmed the 5.0% growth in the first half of this year as compared to the same period of the previous year (seasonally adjusted value and communicated to Eurostat). Also, the result of the second quarter as compared to the same quarter of 2015 was maintained at + 5.9% in seasonally adjusted terms.

In absolute figures, the GDP was recalculated with a slight increase from the data presented in the initial provisional version (+2,392.9 million or 0.64% in nominal terms), not enough to change the increase percentages previously announced. Below, we present the comparative situation for the last two years of the Romanian economy based on the latest official calculations:

tabel1-6-e1476081505177

*

  • Quarterly GDP in the first half of 2015 and 2016 (%, seasonally adjusted data)
  • Period – Q1 2015 – Q2 2015 – first half of 2015
  • GDP (billion lei)
  • % as compared to 2014
  • Period – Q1 2016 – Q2 2016 – first half of 2016
  • GDP (billion lei)
  • % as compared to 2015
  • Source: National Institute of Statistics, 2nd provisional version

*

Population, little less, government, little more than previously expected

The recalculation led to a smaller increase than initially expected for the final consumption expenditure of households (from + 7.3% to + 7.0%), due to the downward revision of its volume from + 11.2% to + 10.8%. Instead, a positive adjustment has been applied to the final consumption expenditure of public administration, from + 0.3% to + 0.5%, due to the its volume increase from + 2.0% to + 3.7%.

Moreover, the impact of household domestic demand on the economic growth has been softened to 6.8% from 7.5%, as in the first provisional version. Instead, the public administration took over most of the difference and its influence on GDP growth went up from + 0.1% to + 0.7%.

A positive adjustment with favorable effect on the final outcome was for exports of goods and services, from + 1.6% to + 3.8%, following the revaluation of its substantial volume increase from + 3.5% to + 8.5%. Unfortunately, the pace of imports has also increased from + 5.0% to + 6.0%, following its volume adjustment from + 11.0% to + 13.5%.

Overall, the negative effect of foreign trade on GDP growth decreased from -3.4%, the initial estimation, to -2.2%, which is the most important change along with the increased statistical influence of the stocks variation from 0.8% to 1.9%. In other words, Romanians have consumed more from what they previously produced and already had in stock and less as impact on the negative net balance of foreign trade.

Good results in IT&C, agriculture and construction

If the trade share in the economic growth was expected to be much higher than the industrial activity, it is somewhat surprising to find IT-telecom sector ranking the second. Basically, if consider its share in GDP, this was the most dynamic sector and had a decisive influence on the final result.

Agriculture has also performed well above its extremely low share in GDP in the first half of the year. With one tenth of the industry share in the final result, agriculture has contributed more than a half of industry’s contribution and equaled the statistical effect of the wage increases in the public sector (technically, they are treated as an increase in gross added value).

tabel2-4-e1476081570532

*

  • Share in GDP and GDP increase (%), gross values
  • Share in GDP – Share in GDP increase
  • Gross added value
  • Trade, transportation, hotels, restaurants
  • IT&C
  • Industry
  • Agriculture
  • Public administration, education, health, defense
  • Construction
  • Real estate transactions
  • Financial intermediation and insurance
  • Entertainment, repair and other services
  • Net taxes/product
  • GDP

*

Construction sector and the related, namely the real estate, also contributed to the good result of the GDP growth. The same can barely be said about the financial intermediation and insurance sector, still facing some problems but maintained within the positive influence range on GDP growth.

It is noteworthy that although gross GDP growth in the first half of 2016 was maintained at 6%, the share of gross added value decreased as compared to the first estimates by half a percent, while net taxes added to this value for methodology reasons took over the equivalent in their account.

Mergeți în homepage ›

Publicat la data de 10.10.2016

Lăsați un comentariu


NEWS

ANAF changes selection procedure for liquidators. Main changes

The new order on approval and selection procedures for insolvency practitioners is an important step to a very good direction, industry experts say. ANAF is… Mai mult

Romania loses competition for a seat at UN Security Council. MAE Excuse: Campaign started too late

Romania lost to Estonia in the final vote to get the non-permanent member position within the UN Security Council for the period 2020-2021. On Friday,… Mai mult

Business internationalization / eMAG makes a step to entry five new international markets and targets a business of EUR 2 billion

eMAG hopes to get the opinion of the Hungarian Competition Council over the next two months for the acquisition of Extreme Digital, the market leader… Mai mult

"At a distance from books": 85,000 teachers (one third of educational staff) are graduates of distance learning

Approximately 85,000 teachers are graduates of distance learning (ID) programs, Education Minister Ecaterina Andronescu said at a meeting with school inspectors from Caras-Severin County. The… Mai mult

Mugur Isarescu: We should make a film for Viasat History about treasure in Moscow

A book should be written or a movie should be made and sent to Viasat History about a treasure evacuated to Moscow, as it is… Mai mult

Rhythm of commercial vehicle registration increases 3 times faster in Romania than EU average

Today, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) announced the status of commercial vehicle registrations in EU member states + EFTA in April and cumulated after… Mai mult

4.2%, from 3%: BNR has increased inflation forecast for 2019

The National Bank increased the inflation forecast for 2019 by 1.2 percentage points, from 3% to 4.2%. Also, the forecast for 2020 goes up by… Mai mult

Emergency procedure at European Court of Justice for Romania’s question: Are MCV recommendations mandatory?

The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has decided that Bihor Court’s request to be discussed under the emergency procedure, which is a… Mai mult

Government decides to increase external borrowing ceiling by EUR 4bn. It has consumed program resources for two years

The Government's agenda for Wednesday also includes the draft decision to increase the foreign loans ceiling for 2019 and 2020 by EUR 4 billion, up… Mai mult

Preparations for Summit in Sibiu - European Commission’s recommendations for EU's strategic agenda

On Tuesday, the European Commission presented a series of policy recommendations on how Europe can shape its future within an increasingly uncertain and multipolar world.… Mai mult

Meeting between Prime Minister Viorica Dancila and Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang: talks on a possible involvement of Chinese companies in PPP projects in Romania

On Friday, Prime Minister Viorica Dancila had a meeting with Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, during which she stated her interest in involving Chinese companies… Mai mult

So-called "Belina Law" was adopted. Opposition will refer CCR: it turns Belina Island into a fiscal paradise

The Chamber of Deputies adopted on Tuesday the bill that provides for a derogating tax regime, such as tax exemptions or reductions, for land and… Mai mult

Deveselu shield is undergoing an upgrade process; the US provides alternative defence capabilities with THAAD systems

Aegis Ashore anti-missile system installed at Deveselu 99 Military Base will go in the next period through a previously planned upgrade process, the MApN announced… Mai mult

How 2019 began: Investments, allocations by 78.5% lower than the same period of 2018. 21% decrease in co-financing for attracting European funds

The consolidated general budget recorded a deficit of 0.5% of GDP in the first two months of 2019 namely RON 5.2 billion, a "performance" only… Mai mult

Romania's GDP exceeded Portugal’s in 2018: which has a population two times lower and a GDP/inhabitant twice as high

Romania's economy exceeded, at current prices in euros, Portugal's economy in 2018, a country with a population and a surface two times smaller as Romania.… Mai mult