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de Razvan Diaconu , 5.2.2018
The Romanian Business Leaders (RBL) Macroeconomic Confidence Index, of 52.3 points, shows that the entrepreneurs and executives from the most important businesses in Romania have a level of confidence in the economy very little above neutrality, according to a survey released by RBL on Tuesday.
RBL members “look with very restrained optimism at the next 12 months. (…). The Macroeconomic Confidence Index covers perceptions about general business conditions, how it is to be employed in Romania, and how the personal income and wealth will evolve,” says the RBL report.
Survey participants are slightly more confident in the current business conditions (54.8 points) than in the conditions they see for the following 12 months (51.1 points – where 0 points mean total lack of confidence, 50 is neutral, and 100 is total confidence).
“Confidence in macroeconomic conditions is like trusting a group of friends. If you trust them, then you will have the courage to lend them money, invest in the shared needs and goals, build together something in the long run. And you can rely on this relationship,” says Dragos Neacsu, CEO of Erste Asset Management Romania and a member of the RBL board.
Further, “Romanian business people’s confidence in the macroeconomic conditions in the country is or not transferred further in the relationship with the state, perceived as a major element that influences these conditions. At present, we can rather talk about a lack of confidence,” concludes Dragos Neacsu, who heads the largest financial investment management company in Romania.
32.2% of RBL members, who cumulate businesses of nearly EUR 3.47 billion and 30,800 employees, have answered to the survey.
Signs of mistrust: unfavourable opinions rise to 61%
General conditions for doing business in Romania are perceived as unfavourable by a little more than 49% of the participants and favourable by not even 30%.
The situation is deteriorating: The favourable opinions regarding the next 12 months went down to 12% and the unfavourable ones increase to over 61%. The difference is represented by the undecided, who are also more numerous.
- How will general conditions for doing business in Romania over the next 12 months?
- The same
- 98% of respondents expect the inflation to continue to rise over the next 12 months, more than 60% expect it to remain above the 3% threshold, and nearly one-third say that inflation will exceed 3.5%.
- 93% of opinions indicate an increase in the three-month ROBOR average interest rate over the next 12 months.
- Eight out of ten respondents said the Romanian leu will continue to depreciate against the Euro. 60.7% of respondents expect the exchange rate to exceed the threshold of 4.7 RON/EUR and almost 7.3% expect the depreciation to exceed 5 RON/EUR
- What will the EUR/RON exchange rate be over the next 12 months?
- Below 4.48
- Between 4.48 and 4.55
- Between 4.55 and 4.70
- Between 4.70 and 5.00
- Above 5
- Balance of opinions: -7%
RBL respondents are more optimistic (52.3 points) than analysts of CFA Society Romania (41 points, according to the CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index).
The perception difference is considerable regarding the next 12 months – RBL members show a very retrained optimism (51 points), compared to CFA Society Romania members who are pessimistic (32 points).
RBL and CFA Society Romania will share their survey results together.