Analysis / Romania’s armed forces in the context of Russian aggression: a comparison with other European armies and recruitment policies

The Romanian army is preparing to recruit – measures triggered by the statements made by the Chief of Staff, general Gheorghiță Vlad, who said that Romania must prepare and take Russia’s aggression seriously.

In this article we provide an overview of the Romanian army in terms of staff, compared with other European states, as well as the ability of the states to respond with weapons.

Considering for each state:
– combatant forces
– recruitment policy and its rethinking in recent years in European states
– ability to respond with weapons
– engagement scenarios of European states troops in the event of a Russian attack

We have three starting points in the case of Romania:

• After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the Ministry of National Defense (MApN) started a rush worth billions of euros to purchase submarines, tanks, planes, armored vehicles, missiles, drones.
• After two years of endowment plans and contract tenders, the heads of the Ministry and of the Romanian Army realized that there are not enough soldiers to use future equipment.
• Minister Angel Tîlvăr subsequently announced a national recruitment of 20,000 people. Moreover, the Chief of the Romanian Army, general Gheorghiță Vlad, wants the entire population capable of fighting to undergo military service.

The Romanian Army – an overview

In the hypothetical case that Russia would attack NATO and not just stop at a conflict in Ukraine, the Romanian Army would be able to muster only 81,000 active people in a general mobilization in the first 24 hours from an initial aggression. However, only 69,000 of these would take part in the confrontation and can be considered military combatants, the rest being auxiliary of administrative personnel. 

This is due to the fact that the Romanian Army consists of 81,000 people, according to the study made by Global Firepower at the beginning of this year. The organization’s representatives claim the data is collected from official sources of the monitored states.

The latest official data from MApN, consulted by CursdeGuvernare.ro, referred to an army of 76,000 people at the end of 2022. The figure is featured in the annual report made by MApN.

According to Global Firepower, to the 81,000 people considered active soldiers, 100,000 people can be added at this moment, gendarmes or soldiers in reserve, who would be mobilized in the event of a war.

Upon addition, the Romanian Army would consist of approximately 180,000 people in a general mobilization. However, the figure is misleading:

We are missing 20,000 soldiers: there are fewer actual combatants than figures indicate

Although military personnel statistically have 81,000 people, actual combatants are just under 70,000:

“We aim to increase the number of military combatants in the Romanian Army from 80,000 to 100,000, given the complex situation near our border. But this depends on the available budget and opportunities”, stated minister Tîlvăr in an interview for Antena 3.

The deficit of 20,000 people in the Romanian Army is explained by the fact that the number of those who withdrew from the army has been rising constantly in recent years. Moreover, the interest in a military career among youths has declined significantly. Consequently, there have been no replacements for retiring military personnel.

Europa Liberă, citing official sources in the field, states that the Romanian Army has lost 13,000 people from the military personnel in the last two years. Fears regarding the war in Ukraine are not at fault for this, but rather fears with respect to changes in retirement conditions. Military personnel chose to retire.

Romania’s military strength in 2023, according to Global Firepower and the IISS (the International Institute for Strategic Studies):

• Active military: 81,000
• Reservists: 55,000 
• Paramilitary personnel – 57,000 (mainly Gendarmerie – Ministry of Internal Affairs).

However, active duty military personnel consist of:

Naval Forces – 6,800 people,
Air Forces – 11,700 people,
Land Forces – 35,500 people
combined forces – 15,000 people.

The result would be an army of 69,000 active duty personnel.

The difference up to 81,000 consists of admistrative and maintenance staff, people who would not have the role of combatants in the event of a conflict.

However, national security expert Claudiu Degeratu believes that the best asset of the Romanian Army is military training. “In terms of organization, training, strategy, it can be said that we are a North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) army. But if we are to consider equipment, armored vehicles, tanks, ships, many of these are reminiscent of the past”, pointed out Claudiu Degeratu for CursdeGuvernare.ro.

Military service in other European states

Military service is mandatory in the following European states:

• Austria (a period of 6 months)
• Switzerland (between 4 and 6 months)
• Denmark (between 4 and 12 months)
• Norway (a period of 19 months)
• Estonia (between 8 and 11 months)
• Finland (between 6 and 12 months)
• Greece (a period of 9 months)
• Cyprus (a period of 25 months)
• Lithuania (12 months)
• Latvia (12 months)
• Sweden (11 months)

Below, the map of European military service/abolition thereof:

Military service in Romania

In Romania, mandatory military service has been suspended since 2007, but the discussion concerning the introduction of voluntary military service is a current one, given the Russian-Ukrainian war. It must be said that the first attempt to reinstate mandatory military service failed in 2015.

• before 1989, military service was compulsory for all male citizens. Before the Revolution, Romania’s army consisted of over 300,000 people.
• before 1989 – men could be called up for military service from 20 to 50 years of age, and women from 18 to 45 years of age (they were conscripts with reduced terms – 9 months before attending college; women would undergo military training during college);
• in 2004 Romania joins NATO and undertakes to go through 3 stages of reorganization. The first stage was completed by 2007 (from 300,000 military personnel in 1989 – to 200,000 in 2001 – to 90,000 employees, of which 75,000 military staff and 15,000 civilians. Out of the 75,000 military personnel – 45,800 are to represent land forces; 13,250, air forces; 6,800, naval forces; 8,800, other assignments. The second stage ended in 2015, when army forces were reduced to 80,000 people. The third stage is scheduled for completion in 2025;
• in 2007, mandatory military service was suspended in Romania;
• in 2023, the structure of Romanian Land Forces includes – Infantry; Artillery; Tanks; Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Artillery; Engineering; CBRN Defense Units and Subunits; Military Police.

Rethinking military service in Europe after the annexation of Crimea: states that initiated recruitment policies

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was the first shock that led several European governments to rethink military service.

• Ukraine brought back conscription in 2014, which allowed it to amass a fairly strong army of professionals and reservists in its current war against Russia.
• Lithuania reinstated partial military service in 2015, after having abandoned it in 2008.
• Norway was the first European country to introduce compulsory military service for women as well, in 2016.
• Sweden reinstated compulsory military service in 2017, after having abandoned it in 2010. The decision was taken after Russian military aircraft and a foreign submarine invaded Swedish air and sea space on several occasions.
• France started undergoing the recently reinstated national service, known as SNU (General National Service), in 2019.
• Latvia has also reintroduced compulsory military service. Starting 2024, all males aged between 18 and 27 will have to undergo 11 months of military training. Starting 2028, 7,500 Latvians will be drafted each year into the army.
• The Netherlands and the Dutch armed forces lack approximately 9,000 recruits. Therefore, the government is considering the possibility of increasing army personnel through mandatory service.
• Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, said in late 2023 that Germany could reinstate conscription.
• The Swiss Parliament, one of the European countries where military service is still mandatory for all men, has taken into consideration as early as 2022 the possibility of extending drafting to women as well. The measure was proposed as a solution to the problem of insufficient army personnel, according to the EFE agency. Switzerland’s active army also consists of 80,000 soldiers in a population of 8.7 million.

Claudiu Degeratu stated that, considering personnel, the situation is not all bad. “There are around 10,000-15,000 military personnel who participated in exercises and in theatres of war in international missions. These people are always able to face an attack. If we consider the numbers and training alone, I believe the Romanian Army is doing well or at least acceptable”, he states.

Active duty combatants in European states

• France – 200,000
• United Kingdom – 184,860
• Germany – 181,600
• Italy -165,500
• Poland – 150,000
• Greece – 142,000
• Spain – 133,200
• Switzerland – 101,000
• Romania – 81,000
• Hungary – 41,600
• The Netherlands – 41,380
• Bulgaria – 37,000
• The Czech Republic – 28,000
• Belgium – 25,000
• Finland – 24,000
• Sweden – 24,400
• Portugal – 24,000
• Norway – 23,250
• Lithuania – 23,000
• Denmark – 20,000
• Slovakia – 19,500
• Latvia – 17,250
• Austria – 16,000
• Croatia – 14,325
• Moldova – 8,500
• Estonia – 7,700

Water, air and land conflict scenarios. The situation within Romania’s Army compared to other states’ armed forces

Although Russia is currently focusing on Ukraine, alliance officials fear that things will change in the future and NATO would have three years to strengthen its defense against a possible Russian offensive targeting alliance territory.

Taking this under consideration, let’s see how countries on the eastern flank stand in terms of land, naval and air forces and military equipment.

Land warfare

• Romania (with a population of 19 million) could muster 35,000 active infantrymen, to which 100,000 reservists and paramilitaries/gendarmes can be added.

In terms of equipment, the Romanian Army has 377 tanks and approximately 1,400 armored vehicles. Regarding artillery Romania has a little under 1,400 pieces of equipment.

• Poland (with a population of 37.7 million) could muster 150,000 active infantrymen, to which 290,000 reservists and paramilitaries can be added.

In terms of equipment, the country has 577 tanks and approximately 2,340 armored vehicles. Regarding artillery, Poland has a little under 1,400 pieces of equipment.

• Latvia (with a population of 1.8 million) could muster 6,700 active infantrymen, to which 48,000 reservists and paramilitaries can be added.

In terms of equipment, Latvia has only 1,081 armored vehicles and no tanks. Regarding artillery, the country has 41 pieces of equipment.

• Lithuania (with a population of 2.8 million) could muster 14,500 active infantrymen, to which 110,000 reservists and paramilitaries can be added.

In terms of equipment, Lithuania has only 881 armored vehicles and no tanks. Regarding artillery, the country has 39 pieces of equipment.

• Estonia (with a population of 1.33 million) could muster 4,000 active infantrymen, to which 90,000 reservists and paramilitaries can be added.

In terms of equipment, Estonia has only 1,400 armored vehicles and no tanks. Regarding artillery, the country has 21 pieces of equipment.

• Bulgaria (with a population of 6.8 million) could muster 17,000 active infantrymen, to which 3,000 reservists can be added.

In terms of equipment, the country has 120 tanks and over 4,400 armored vehicles. Regarding artillery, Bulgaria has 168 pieces of equipment.

• Slovakia (with a population of 5.4 million) could muster 10,200 active infantrymen and no reservists.

In terms of equipment, the country has 25 tanks and approximately 1,434 armored vehicles. Regarding artillery, Slovakia has over 40 pieces of equipment.

• Hungary (with a population of 9.7 million) could muster 32,000 active infantrymen and 35,000 reservists.

In terms of equipment, the country has 146 tanks and approximately 5,500 armored vehicles. Regarding artillery, Hungary has 223 pieces of equipment.

Military strategy changes in the region began to be visible after 2014, once Russia annexed Crimea and openly supported separatist conflicts in eastern Ukraine. “The forecast regarding military strategy changes started in 2014. Now, after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, it is clear that NATO armed forces will not only have to repel a one-off attack, but also prepare to face a large-scale invasion”, believes Claudiu Degeratu.

Air warfare

• Romania is estimated to have 11,700 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Romanian Air Force theoretically has 85 aircrafts and over 50 helicopters.
• Poland is estimated to have 16,500 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Polish Air Force theoretically has 461 aircrafts, of which 66 are modern, 212 helicopters and 6 drones.
• Latvia is estimated to have 250 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Air Force theoretically has 7 aircrafts, of which none are fighters, and 4 helicopters.
• Lithuania is estimated to have 1,500 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Air Force theoretically has only 9 aircrafts, of which none are fighters, and 3 helicopters.
• Estonia is estimated to have 1,570 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Air Force theoretically has only 11 aircrafts, of which none are fighters, and 2 helicopters.
• Bulgaria is estimated to have 8,500 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Air Force theoretically has 36 aircrafts, of which none are fighters, and 17 helicopters.
• Slovakia is estimated to have 3,300 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Air Force theoretically has only 37 aircrafts, of which none are fighters, and 14 helicopters.
• Hungary is estimated to have 5,750 soldiers in the Air Force. In terms of equipment, the Air Force theoretically has only 40 aircrafts, of which none are fighters, and 30 helicopters.

“We don’t have naval forces, nor do we have fighter jets, apart from the few (e.n. 17) F-16 aircrafts. In terms of equipment, we’re certainly not doing well and we would barely withstand an invasion”, Claudiu Degeratu also pointed out for CursdeGuvernare.ro. “We started from a very low point: the equipment mostly dates from the communist era. And only part of the forces – the one designated for NATO service – has the necessary combat training”, added Claudiu Degeratu.

Naval warfare

• Romania is estimated to have 6,800 soldiers in the Naval Forces. In terms of equipment, the Romanian Navy theoretically has 27 ships, of which only three frigates, average-size vessels.
• Poland is estimated to have 12,300 soldiers in the Naval Forces. In terms of equipment, the Polish Navy theoretically has 46 ships, of which only 2 frigates and 2 corvettes, as well as a submarine.
• Latvia is estimated to have 1,000 soldiers in the Naval Forces. In terms of equipment, the Latvian Navy theoretically has 18, none of which are warships.
• Lithuania is estimated to have 700 soldiers in the Naval Forces. In terms of equipment, the Lithuanian Navy theoretically has 11, none of which are warships.
• Estonia is estimated to have 500 soldiers in the Naval Forces. In terms of equipment, the Navy theoretically has 20, none of which are warships.
• Bulgaria is estimated to have 4,400 soldiers in the Naval Forces. In terms of equipment, the Navy theoretically has 40 ships, of which only 3 frigates and 4 corvettes, average-size vessels.
• Slovakia has no Navy, nor equipment.
• Hungary has no Navy, nor equipment.

Switzerland’s unique case among European countries

Switzerland, a neutral country with 7 million citizens, has compulsory military service for men. Moreover, two years ago, the Swiss Parliament discussed for the first time the introduction of compulsory military service for women as well.

In Switzerland, military service lasts between four and six months, but reservists must participate in yearly activities to maintain their level of training.

The Swiss Army has approximately 100,000 soldiers, after two rounds of military personnel downsizing.

It must be stated: In 2013, the Swiss rejected by referendum the abolition of compulsory military service.

Russia’s capacity before the war in Ukraine

Russia (with a population of 144 million) is estimated to have 550,000 active infantrymen, with an additional 2.23 million reservists and paramilitaries.

In terms of equipment, the Red Army is estimated to have 10,344 tanks and approximately 112,900 armored vehicles. Regarding artillery, Russia is supposed to have over 26,000 pieces of equipment.

Russia is presumed to have 165,000 soldiers in the Air Force.

Regarding equipment, the air force could have over 2,700 aircrafts, of which more than 1,000 are fighters, and 1,006 helicopters.

Russia is believed to have 160,000 soldiers in the Naval Forces.

Regarding equipment, the Navy is estimated to have 781 ships, including an aircraft carrier.

“It is no longer possible to occupy a sizeable country because there is no longer an army of a million men to go to war, as before. Even Russia, a military power with a population of 140 million, barely managed to muster about 180,000 men to send to Ukraine”, believes Hari Bucur-Marcu, military expert.

“Romania is not able to defend itself. They would probably manage to do less than the Ukrainian army. However, we are part of NATO. The forces ration between NATO and Russia is 10 to 1 in favor of the Alliance”, added the expert.

The Global Firepower ranking

According to the study made in 2024 by Global Firepower, Romania ranks 41^st in the top of the strongest armies worldwide, 11^th among European Union military forces and 14^th within NATO forces.

Considering only NATO’s Eastern Europe Plan, Romania ranks 5th among armies closest to the Russian territory.

However, the study reveals that Romania ranks higher than neighboring NATO member states, since Hungary ranks 55^th and Bulgaria ranks 67^th.

The budget for Defense in Romania

At the moment, the Ministry of Defense has several military procurement projects in progress, the most important being: Patriot long-range ground-based air missiles (stage I), armored personnel carrier, Himars (Multiple Launch Rocket System), mobile missile launchers, vehicle transport platforms, wheeled multipurpose vehicles, drones, anti-drone systems, F-16 aircraft acquisitions, as well as patrol ships and even submarines for the Navy.

The Defense budget for 2024 is EUR 8 billion, which is 2.3% of the EUR 350 billion GDP.

The EUR 8 billion Defense budget for 2024 is 25% higher than last year’s but under the verbally announced target of 2.5% of GDP

However, of the EUR 8 billion, only EUR 3 billion will go towards investments, while EUR 5 billion will go to operations: salaries, pensions, goods and services, according to the Army budget published by the Ministry of Finance.

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