The GDP 2020 estimate has been reduced for the third time in a row in the so-called Preliminary Autumn Forecast for the budget amendment published… Mai mult›
The intergovernmental agreement between the United States and Romania in the nuclear-civil cooperation field has received the European Commission’s approval, and Romania will start construction… Mai mult›
Open registration: ONLINE CONFERENCE Deposit-return system in Romania, from concept to implementation, November 24
A system which can save Romania from the packages waste and, at the same time, can ensure fulfillment of obligations in the field towards the… Mai mult›
Romanian Leu, koruna, zloty and forint in pandemic: a comparison in terms of stability and its effects
Romanian Leu was much more stable during the pandemic than the currencies of Central European countries with a similar exchange rate regime, the Czech Republic,… Mai mult›
Black Sea natural gas: Exploitation in Neptune Deep perimeter could start by 2025 – estimation by Ministry of Economy
Offshore perimeters in the Black Sea The Ministry of Economy would be satisfied if the exploitation of natural gas in Neptun Deep perimeter in the… Mai mult›
de Gabriel Biris , 23.9.2019
Let’s take a look at the figures.
In the explanatory memoranda of Law 127/2019 on the unitary pension system, pensions cost increase calculated by the lawmaker is the following:
- 2019 (4 months) – + RON 8.45 billion. The amount is comparable to RON 9 billion, the amount that Mr Tariceanu alleged it would miss from the budget;
- 2020 – + RON 24.852 billion. Hard to believe that the 2020 budget will be able to provide this growth without significantly exceeding 3% GDP deficit;
- 2021 – + RON 58.1 billion. Already impossible to find solutions;
- 2022 – + RON 81.15 billion. That doesn’t really matter anymore; the collapse will occur in 2021.
These amounts are additional expenditures to RON 63 billion, which is already budgeted for the payment of pensions by Law 47/2019 on the social insurance budget. Basically, we are talking about an increase from RON 63 billion to RON 144 billion in just 3 years (+ 128%, which is more than twice!).
- Budget revenues
- State social insurance budget
- Pension expenditure (updated following the new Pension Law)
Let us not forget that these proposals come after other increases, masked though by a trick: by the “fiscal revolution”, CAS has increased by 19% (25% compared to 21%, which would be a neutral level), and transferred “just on paper” not less than RON 11 billion from BS in the BAS (by reducing the tax on wages / income from 16% to 10%).
Let’s look at these two graphs. It is clear how BAS revenues disconnect from pension expenses, which get to exceed 50% of the consolidated budget (BS + BAS) in 2021 and approach 60% in 2022.
- Consolidated budget
- State insurance budget revenues
- Pension expenses (updated based on the new Pension Law)
Be aware! These amounts do not include special pensions! Special pensions, along with the salaries in the public sector, expenses for military endowment, utilities, and investments would be paid from the remaining 40%.
The answer to the question in the headline becomes obvious, in no way do I risk my credibility by giving it here and now: WE CAN’T HANDLE IT!
The only alternative to bankruptcy is hyperinflation, but considering that the PSD assault on the BNR has failed, it is unlikely for us to see the printing machine switched on….
Lăsați un comentariuAnuleaza raspunsul
Luca de Meo (foto), the new general manager (CEO) of Renault group, considers that Dacia project proved to be a miracle and that no one… Mai mult›
A former Soviet airbase in central Romania could become a hub for US Air Force operations in south-eastern Europe, where the Pentagon is seeking to… Mai mult›
Nuclearelectrica shareholders approved to terminate negotiations with Chinese for building reactors 3 and 4 from Cernavoda
Nuclearelectrica's Board of Directors has been mandated to initiate proceedings to terminate negotiations with China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), as well as legal effects… Mai mult›
"Putting capacity growth projects planned in Morocco and Romania on hold" - is one of the measures included in the draft plan of Renault Group… Mai mult›
Romania imported an amount of electricity of almost 796 GWh in the first month of this year, by more than 36% above what it exported… Mai mult›
GFG Alliance has committed to invest one billion euros to upgrade Galati steel plant in order to reduce emissions and increase production. Another EUR 1… Mai mult›
Transport Ministry announces it has sent to Brussels the financing request for Sibiu - Pitesti highway
The Transport Ministry, as the Intermediate Body in Transport, approved the financing request for the project "Construction of Sibiu - Pitesti highway", Sections 1, 4… Mai mult›
(The map of investment financed through Juncker Plan, by GDP share. Darker colours mean higher shares) The operator of national natural gas pipelines, Transgaz (TGN)… Mai mult›
Lack of trust in authorities, corruption and low living standards are the main reasons why young people leave Romania. The data is part of a… Mai mult›
The Ministry of Public Finance announces that it has issued the methodological norms for the implementation of the Program for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises… Mai mult›
Romania is the EU country with the fewest cars in terms of the number of inhabitants, according to data recently published by Eurostat. We appear… Mai mult›
Government is trying to save budget deficit: reductions in public administration system, cancellation of bonus for harmful conditions, excise duty on soft drinks
The Government is preparing the public for the first measures aimed at avoiding the budget slippage, which would be applied by the PSD-ALDE government. News… Mai mult›
French Prosecutor Jean-Francois Bohnert will be appointed as head of the European Financial Prosecutor's Office, a position for which he was heard on Thursday, 11… Mai mult›
Romania - EU country with highest risk of dying in a road accident, Bulgaria is quickly decreasing number of victims since it built motorways
Romania recorded the highest road deaths in the EU also last year, with 96 deaths per one million inhabitants in 2018, almost double the EU… Mai mult›
Latest developments in progress at Health Ministry: Differentiated wages based on performance, competitions organised at a regional level not by hospitals
Sorina Pintea announced on Thursday further new changes that will be brought to the functioning of the health care system, including new rules for employment… Mai mult›
The new order on approval and selection procedures for insolvency practitioners is an important step to a very good direction, industry experts say. ANAF is… Mai mult›