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Cronicile

IMF estimation / Romania’s economy will grow by 5% in 2016

de Dordia Tereza 5.10.2016

pozaThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Romania’s economy will grow by 5% this year, more than the previously expected advance of 4.2%.

In 2017, economic growth would slow down to 3.8% according to the IMF’s forecast contained in the October edition of the World Economic Outlook.

In the previous report, published in April, the IMF estimated a growth rate of 3.6% for 2017. For 2021, the institution estimates a 3.3% economic increase, along with the deepening of the current account deficit to 3.2% of GDP, as compared to a deficit of 2% of GDP forecasted for this year.

The National Commission for Prognosis (CNP) also revised in September the projections for the economic growth, following the evolution well above estimates in the first half of the year, but the institution anticipates an advance of 4.8%.

Previously, CNP estimated an increase of 4.2%. For the next three years, CNP has maintained the GDP growth forecasts to 4.3%, 4.5%, respectively 4.7%.

Romanian economy grew by 6%, gross series, in the second quarter of 2016, as compared to the same period of the last year and by 5.9%, seasonally adjusted data, according to the statistics. The growth rate is the highest since 2008.

Regarding the consumer price index, the IMF estimates that Romania will register a deflation of 0.3% in December 2016, as compared to an annual rate of – 0.9% at the end of last year. Annual inflation will reach in December 2017 to 2.7%, according to the IMF report.

Globally, the IMF anticipates the economic growth to 3.1% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017, this year’s evolution being adversely affected by the slowing down of the UK economy in the context of the pro-Brexit vote at the referendum in June. Forecasts for the world economy’s advance maintained at the level anticipated in July.

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