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CNP: Dazzling rates of economic growth at country regions level for next years. Over 6% annually, in North-East and Centre regions
de Adrian N Ionescu 4.6.2017
The Bucharest-Ilfov region will continue to have the highest net monthly average wage per employee in the next four years but will register the lowest growth rates compared to the other seven development regions of Romania, according to the spring territorial projection of the National Prognosis Commission (CNP).
The highest economic advance in the coming years would be registered in the North-East Region, of 6% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020, when it will be followed by the Centre Region with a 6% rate.
In 2017, the growth champion will be South-West Oltenia Region, with 5.6% in 2017; in 2018, along with the North-East and Centre regions, it will see a GDP growth of 5.7% in 2018.
CNP estimates are mainly based on the progress of the construction field, whose contribution to the increase of the gross added value should exceed 7% in most regions of the country starting next year, reaching 8.4% in the North-East and 8% in the North-West, in 2020.
Wages and unemployment
Net monthly average wage is estimated at 3,139 lei in 2017, 3,425 lei in 2018, 3,706 lei in 2019 and 3,969 in 2020 in the Bucharest-Ilfov Region. On the other hand, this region ranks the last in terms of GDP growth, although the estimated CNP rates exceed the 5% threshold (this year), 5.2% in 2018 and 5.4% in 2019 and 2020.
The lowest net wages will be recorded in the South-East Region – 1,974 lei this year, in the South-West Oltenia Region – 2,132 lei next year, in the South – East Region – 2,319 lei in 2019 and in the South-West Oltenia – 2,442 lei in 2020.
The highest number of unemployed will be recorded over the next four years in the South-Muntenia Region, as CNP estimates indicate 70,000 unemployed in 2017, a level that will decline steadily to 60,000 in 2020. The smallest number of unemployed in 2017 is registered in Bucharest – Ilfov, 20,000. From 2018 to 2020, the lowest number of unemployed will be recorded in the West Region (19,000, 18,000 and 15,000, respectively).
The lowest unemployment rate is expected in the Bucharest-Ilfov Region, 1.5% in 2017, 1.4% in 2018 and 2019 and 1.3% in 2020. On the opposite side, the highest unemployment rate will be recorded in the South-West Oltenia Region, namely 7.4% this year, 6.9% in 2018, 6.5% in 2019 and 6.3% in 2020.