vineri

29 martie, 2024

4 septembrie, 2017

Eurostatistics represents a synthesis based on a set of standardized and harmonized indicators for comparability between countries at the European level (Principal European Economic Indicators – PEEIs). These indicators are monthly published and reviewed to provide a synthetic picture on a national economy and recent developments.

Here is a selection of indicators of the greatest interest for the way Romania is seen from the outside, through the centralized analysis at the EU level and what conclusions can be drawn from the recent economic developments:


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  •   Q4 2015          Q1 2016          Q2 2916          Q3 2016          Q4 2016          Q1 2017
  • Labour cost (%, Q/Q-4)
  • Turnover in service fields (%, Q/Q-4)
  • Employment (%, Q/Q-4)
  • Ratio of vacant jobs (%)
  • Price of housing
  • Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 June 17
  • Unemployment rate (%)
  • Industrial production (%, M/M-12)
  • Construction (%, M/M-12)
  • Yield of bonds on long term (%year)
  • Euro/leu exchange rate

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1- First, the sustained increase in labour cost draws attention, well above the economic advancement and on a continuous acceleration trend. What is not seen in the European statistics is even worse, namely the imbalance in favour of even higher increases in the state sector than in the private sector.

2- It is noteworthy that the evolution of the turnover in the services sector has not caught up, since the beginning of 2016, with the increased incomes, reflected in the evolution of the labour costs.


Moreover, the gap kept increasing to almost double the first indicator, which means that the transmission of the increased amount of money in the economic advance takes place at a decreasing yield (the services sector is predominant in the structure of GDP for any developed or developing economy).

The additional money seems to have been directed in a significant proportion to the real estate sector, where we went out of the stability criterion of + 6% per year even since the second quarter of 2016 and the trend is still increasing. It is a pity that we lose a stability criterion in the macroeconomic scoreboard, where we had 13 criteria met up to now, of 14.

3- The evolution of employment remained negative in the last four quarters analysed and the job vacancy rate is still higher than two years ago, although it made a small recovery after the situation in the third quarter of 2016. The signal is, though, that it is already becoming increasingly difficult to find people with certain specializations and keep the workforce with certain skills.

The unemployment rate remains relatively low compared to the European average, but it moved sharply upward and the adjusted data on those who left to look for work abroad would look quite different.

4 – Romanians left to work abroad: here is the real key to raising budget revenues. If the people who are already away had worked in the country, we would have had a completely different share of employees in the total population (in other words, not the level of taxation is the problem to solve but the increase in the share of the salaried labour).

5- The temporary escape of adventures proposed during elections has come, unexpectedly and without any merit for anyone, from the (yet) unexpectedly good development of industrial production. In contrast, latest data on the construction sector do not look good, the hope being that this is a transient situation.

6- The yield of government bonds for long-term loans has calmed down after approaching the 4% rate at the end of the first quarter and returned to lower values than those registered at the beginning of the year but above those in 2016. The euro/leu exchange rate, though, started a slight upward trend and the April decreasing trend has stopped and it returned afterwards to a slight depreciation of the national currency.

All in all, data show that we should temper the increase by a forced march of incomes and correlate them much more closely with the labour productivity and the results of the real economy. The impulse from the electoral incentives has reached its limit and perspectives do not look good if we keep going on the current trends.

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