Global security is under threat. The system of international rules that has kept our citizens safe and our societies prosperous since the end of the Second… Mai mult›
Q2 / Average monthly income per capita in Romania has risen to nearly RON 1,600: Changes in redistribution of family budget
Data published by INS for the second quarter of 2018 show that Romanians’ monthly incomes have reached nearly RON 1,600 per person. They were RON… Mai mult›
According to the data released by Eurostat, Romania’s current account deficit exceeded, in the second quarter of the year, the threshold of five percentage points… Mai mult›
Strategic chemical industry: Romania, on top in import increase and ranking last in EU in terms of increase in exports outside single market
Data published by Eurostat show that Romania recorded the second highest annual growth rate in imports of non-EU chemicals from 2007 to 2017 (13.1% per… Mai mult›
Rising incomes have fuelled consumption and, implicitly, the economic growth in recent years, but not the savings. Although a large proportion of the population… Mai mult›
de Marin Pana , 23.5.2018
According to data published by the National Institute of Statistics, Romania’s trade exchanges with Hungary, Poland and Slovakia caused almost 43% of the deficit registered by our country in the foreign trade last year.
For comparison, we should remind that the negative result cumulated for the trade with the four largest EU economic forces (Germany, the UK, France and Italy) is only 1.8%.
An economy with a GDP of less than two-thirds of Romania’s, the Hungarian one, produces more than a fifth of the deficit (20.8%) and ranks second after China, a country with which most of the world’s countries register a deficit.
Poland, with a size of the economic results two and a half times bigger than Romania, also contributes with sixth (16.6%) of our trade deficit and is the only state with which we have a significant trade besides China, with which we register a coverage ratio of imports by exports of less than 50%.
Finally, from the trade with an economy that is 2.2 times smaller than ours, the Slovak one, we registered last year a deficit of 5.5% of the total, placed between the deficit registered with Germany (which has an economy 17 times larger than ours but brought us a minus of only 6.1% of the total) and Italy (nine times stronger according to the official Eurostat data on GDP in 2017 but with a contribution of only 4.2 % of our trade deficit).
Surprisingly, Romania has a rather pronounced surplus with the United Kingdom (6.7% compared to the trade deficit of last year, namely more than we registered in the exchanges with the European driving force, Germany) and a favourable position in the trade exchanges with France (1.8% on the total deficit).
Therefore, not the economic exchanges with the big European economies raise problems to us, but rather those with our former colleagues from the socialist bloc, in relation to which we only manage to have exports at some worryingly low proportions compared to imports (54.3% with Hungary, 49.7% with Poland or 62.5% with Slovakia).
We mentioned Slovakia, because, very interestingly, we are significantly better in our exchanges with the Czech Republic (2.9% of the deficit, at a coverage ratio of 86.4%).
Romania as a market
Going further, it would be interesting to see the importance of the sale market which Romania represents (the seventh EU country by population) for Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (it is not the case with the Czech Republic, to which we are a less important trade partner).
The data collected from the national statistics offices show that from the trade with Romania:
- Hungary obtained over 30% of the surplus registered in 2017 in its foreign trade,
- Slovakia, 20% of its own surplus
- Poland (pay attention! about 500%, given the relatively small size of its trade surplus).
Incidentally, you can see how all these states, unlike Romania, register foreign trade surpluses, with beneficial effects in Hungary’s case for the forint and in Poland’s case for the zloty (both having a floating rate regime, like us).
- Romania’s importance in the trade with some Central European countries (billion euro)
- Country export Import Surplus export Romania import Romania Surplus Romania
To Hungary, we are even the second trade partner after Germany. With 5.4% of Hungarian exports, we surpass Slovakia, France and Italy (which oscillate around 5% each).
In our trade with Poland, we do not make it to top 10, a ranking which ends with the US (EUR 5.5 billion), but their result from the trade with us is very important, as the annual surplus of about EUR 2 billion from this relationship is five times higher than the overall surplus.
But Slovakia has the most interesting situation, the smallest of the economies that manage to place far more products on our market than we can manage to do on their market. For them, we are on the 10th position by export destinations but with the second largest annual growth rate (+15.3%) after the US and we have already got ahead of the Netherlands in the first two months of 2018.
However, last year, we did not count as a surplus source for Slovakia because we had to stay behind Germany (about EUR 3.6 billion), the UK (EUR 2.7 billion), Austria (EUR 2.5 billion), France (EUR 2.4 billion), Italy (EUR 2.2 billion), Poland (EUR 2 billion, pays for Slovakian products what it collects from the sales to us), USA (EUR1.3 billion), the Czech Republic (EUR 1.3 billion) and Spain (EUR 1.1 billion).
In this context, perhaps we should pay closer attention to the markets from our immediate vicinity, where we could easier develop our exports, even though it does not seem like that to us (Ukraine has a surplus of EUR 165 million euros with Slovakia) and reach a level of goods deliveries to other countries closer to the GDP we have reached.Of course, it is easier for smaller countries to focus on export (Slovakia has a 105% export share in GDP and Hungary 81%, while Poland reaches only 44%).
But even so, the competitivity test on markets somewhat similar in terms of revenues is very important, and our position (33% ratio between exports and GDP) should be somewhere between Hungary and Poland. Which would also balance the chronically deficient trade exchanges with these countries.
Lăsați un comentariu
Only Cluj-Napoca is among the 22 European cities that will receive financing from the European Regional Development Fund (FEDR) for innovative solutions in addressing urban… Mai mult›
Prime Minister Dancila dismissed 13 of 15 civil society representatives from Economic and Social Council. They were blocking legislation that did not gathered all opinions
Prime Minister Viorica Dancila has replaced 13 of the 15 civil society representatives in the Economic and Social Council (CES). Following a decision published on… Mai mult›
West Quadrilateral / Four counties joined to directly access European money for major infrastructure projects
From right to left: Gheorghe Falca, Nicolae Robu, Ilie Bolojan. Emil Boc, Mayor of Cluj Napoca, misses Four mayors from the West of the country… Mai mult›
Chamber of Deputies / PSD loses UDMR’s support for amending Offshore Law, draft returns to committees for a week
The plenum of the Chamber of Deputies decided on Wednesday to resend the Offshore Law to committees after a seemingly surprising request of UDMR leader… Mai mult›
The Government adopted on Thursday the draft Emergency Ordinance for amending and supplementing legislation in the field of insolvency, which provides among other things for… Mai mult›
Unlike the vast majority of the economic areas, in which we are at the bottom of the European ranking, Romania succeeded to rank 7th by… Mai mult›
There are clear signs that the lobbying action launched by the ruling coalition in Brussels in favour of the government in Bucharest will end with… Mai mult›
MFP: Romania does not endorse a separate budget for Eurozone and rejects the idea of taxing financial transactions
Romania does not endorse a separate budget for Eurozone and rejects the idea of taxing financial transactions, Minister of Public Finance Eugen Teodorovici said after… Mai mult›
Finance Ministry wants to change rules for insolvency: state could also register claims after procedure is launched
Companies’ possibility to avoid paying creditors (and in particular the payment of tax receivables) simply by declaring their insolvency would be drastically limited, according to… Mai mult›
Prime Minister Viorica Dancila, European Commissioner Phil Hogan and Agriculture Minister Petre Daea The swine fever epidemics in Romania has an impact on neighbouring countries,… Mai mult›
Infrastructure projects lost EUR 41.5 million following budget amendment. In what projects cuts have been made
Despite the assurances that Dancila government is concerned and intensely working on the road infrastructure projects, at the budget amendment the Transport Ministry has cut… Mai mult›
Leaders of the political groups in the European Parliament have decided to adopt in October a resolution on the rule of law in Romania. The… Mai mult›
"Romania's buffers have deteriorated, the country is less prepared for a negative shock" - IMF will reduce economic growth estimate
Romania will be less prepared if the economy is hit by a negative shock, as the structural deficit has been deteriorated - IMF representative for… Mai mult›
Premiere: CSAT asks Finance Ministry to amend amendment - session suspended until Government comes with a draft that does not affect budgets of secret services
President Klaus Iohannis suspended on Tuesday the CSAT meeting for discussing the budget amendment, as there was no consensus on the budgets of institutions from… Mai mult›